The Economic and Fiscal Implications of Alberta Separation

In June 2026, the Government of Alberta selected the School of Public Policy at the University of Calgary to undertake an independent, evidence-based analysis of the potential economic and fiscal impacts of Alberta separating from Canada.

The project reflects the School’s role in bringing rigorous research and policy expertise to complex questions of significant public interest. To undertake the work, the School assembled a cross-disciplinary team of economists, researchers and policy experts from the University of Calgary and beyond, drawing together expertise across public finance, economics, trade, labour markets, institutions and public policy.

The analysis examines what separation could mean for Alberta’s economy and public finances, including potential transition costs, changes in government revenues and expenditures, and the broader risks and opportunities that could arise for Albertans. Because many of these outcomes would depend on future negotiations, policy choices and decisions by other governments and institutions, the project considers a range of scenarios and contingencies rather than attempting to predict a single outcome.

The project was developed through a collaborative research and review process involving authors, research assistants, technical contributors, reviewers, project leadership, and an integration and production team. The School retained full editorial control over the framing, analysis and final content of the work. 

The research was also subject to external review. The School drew on its network of subject-matter experts in Alberta, and beyond, alongside an arm’s-length advisory panel appointed separately by the Government of Alberta. Reviewers examined the evidence, assumptions, analysis and completeness of the work, providing critique and advice. Authors and project leadership retained responsibility for the analysis, the evidence selected and the conclusions presented. This process strengthened the work while preserving the independence of the research.

The project is presented in two complementary parts.

The Overview Report brings together the principal findings from across the research. It is designed to give readers a clear and accessible understanding of the major economic and fiscal questions, the factors that could shape them, and the range of potential outcomes identified through the analysis.

The accompanying Technical Papers and Appendices provide the deeper analytical foundation for the project. They examine specific issues in greater detail and set out the evidence, assumptions, methodologies, scenarios and supporting analysis behind the findings presented in the Overview Report.

The project is intended to contribute credible, independent evidence to an important public discussion. It does not make recommendations about whether Alberta should pursue separation or how Albertans should vote. The School is grateful to the many authors, reviewers, advisors and contributors who supported this work, and hopes the project will serve as a useful resource for Albertans, policymakers, researchers and others seeking to better understand the implications of this question.