Potential Fiscal and Economic Impacts of Alberta Separation
Project Scope
In June 2026, the Government of Alberta selected the School of Public Policy to conduct to conduct an independent, evidence-based analysis that details the potential economic impacts from the province leaving Canada.
The School has mobilized a cross-disciplinary team of economists and policy experts from the University of Calgary and other institutions to pursue the evidence-based analysis for this report.
The report will provide estimated transition costs from separation from Canada including the potential impact on the Government of Alberta’s expenditures along with the potential risks and benefits for Albertans if the province pursued this constitutional change.
The report will not include policy recommendations.
Being selected to do this critical analysis is a major vote of confidence in the rigorous academic research at the University of Calgary and we appreciate the opportunity to provide Albertans with clear, evidence-based data to help make informed decisions.
Martha Hall Findlay
Director, School of Public Policy & James S. and Barbara A. Palmer Chair in Public Policy
Contributors
The project is led by Martha Hall Findlay, Director of the School of Public Policy and James S. and Barbara A. Palmer Chair in Public Policy, and Dr. Tim Sargent, Director of Economic Growth & Prosperity for the School. The economic modelling and analysis for the report will be conducted by faculty at the School of Public Policy and the University of Calgary as well as select subject-matter experts in Canada and internationally.
Timeline
The School will deliver its report to the Ministry of Treasury Board and Finance in August 2026. The report is expected to be released to the public by the Government of Alberta in late summer in advance of the provincewide referendum on Alberta’s future in Canada on Oct. 19, 2026.
As an academic institution, it was imperative that we complete control over our research, methodology and the final report. Academic freedom ensures our analysis of the economic implications remains objective, transparent and trusted.
Dr. Tim Sargent
Director, Economic Growth & Prosperity, School of Public Policy
Will the School of Public Policy provide recommendations on separation to the Government in this report?
No. The School’s report will strictly provide analysis of the economic implications of potential separation versus remaining part of Canada.
What is the School of Public Policy’s relationship with the Advisory Panel for the Government of Alberta?
The Government of Alberta appointed an expert advisory panel that will provide input and act as a consultative body for both the School and government throughout the process. While the panel will offer input, the School retains full and independent control over the final report.
Will the School provide advice to Albertans about the potential impacts of separation before the referendum?
The School will not issue any statements with advice to Albertans. However, all university faculty have the academic freedom to express their opinion and perspective on topics related to their research.
Who are the contributors to the report?
Contributors are being added to the project as subject-matter expertise is required during the research process and will be listed in the final report.
More Information
UToday
UCalgary to lead independent analysis examining potential impact...
The School of Public Policy is conducting an independent, evidence-based analysis for the Government of Alberta on the potential economic impacts if province separates from Canada.
Government of Alberta
Informing Alberta’s Future
The University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy has been selected to provide an independent analysis of the potential economic impacts of secession so that Albertans can make an informed decision in the Oct. 19 referendum.
Government of Alberta
Advisory Panel on the potential impacts of separation
The advisory panel will provide input to the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy as it conducts an independent analysis of the potential costs, benefits and consequences of separation.