Social Policy Trends: It’s Not Just the Cold

A problem recognized by point-in-time count organizers is that their efforts are sensitive to weather conditions on the night of the count. A count made in July provides a different answer from a count made in January. As weather conditions deteriorate, some rough sleepers seek the warm and dry conditions of an emergency shelter. In warmer months, these same people may abandon shelters and return to sleeping rough. The numbers of rough sleepers can be expected to change with weather conditions.

Very few people sleep rough in all conditions. Many people move between shelters and rough sleeping as weather conditions change.

Current research at the School of Public Policy is investigating how sensitive to weather conditions these movements into and out of emergency shelters are. Identifying the size of weather-induced shelter use helps determine the number of people sleeping rough on a given day, better preparing shelter operators who need to be able to anticipate when to make more shelter beds available. Beyond assistance in shelter planning, our on-going research shows that it is not just the winter cold that drives rough sleepers indoors.