For Canada, a Shift from IEEPA to Section 232 Tariffs Will Be a Transition

This briefing paper argues that even if a U.S. court decision curtails Trump-era tariff actions under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, Canada’s trade vulnerability does not disappear. Instead, the risk shifts toward other delegated tariff authorities, especially Section 232 national-security tariffs. The authors say that this changes the nature of the threat: instead of broad, economy-wide uncertainty, Canada faces a more sector-specific and province-specific pattern of exposure. That matters because different provinces are tied to different export products and will therefore face different levels of disruption.

The paper’s contribution is to map those geographic and product-level vulnerabilities and to explain why Canadian responses must become more targeted. It argues that provincial impacts, sector concentration, and the timing of U.S. investigations all create openings for more proactive Canadian mitigation strategies. The broader recommendation is that Canada should stop treating tariff shocks as purely national events and instead build response strategies that reflect where exposure is concentrated and where policy action can reduce damage before tariffs are fully in force.