Beyond CUSMA: Polling Research on Canada & U.S. Perspectives
Beyond CUSMA: Crisis, Co-operation and the Relationship Ahead
Findings from Polling in Canada and the United States | Spring 2026
By Diya Jiang
With the July 1st CUSMA deadline fast approaching, the Canada-U.S. relationship has been on everyone’s mind. But the relationship runs deeper than any single trade agreement. This report asks where the two publics actually stand: on the relationship itself, on cooperation across key policy areas beyond trade, and on what the decade ahead looks like from either side of the border. It presents findings from two waves of nationally representative surveys conducted in Canada and the United States in spring 2026, the first in an NNAI national tracking series.
KEY FINDINGS
- A crisis felt far more acutely in Canada. Four in five (81 per cent) Canadians describe the bilateral relationship, compared to only 31 per cent of Americans. Canadian views of the United States have fallen to levels now comparable to how Canadians view China, and well below views of Mexico, the United Kingdom, and Japan.
- A distracted neighbour. The most fundamental asymmetry is one of attention. Seventy per cent of Americans never follow Canadian news; 75 per cent have never visited Canada. Just one per cent of Canadians are unsure how to characterize the current relationship, compared with 17 per cent of Americans.
- Common ground on cooperation. Despite the divergence in how each public perceives the current state of the relationship, majorities on both sides of the border support bilateral economic cooperation. Support for working together on energy and critical minerals stands at 77 per cent among Americans and 65 per cent among Canadians. Closer economic cooperation is backed by 73 per cent of Canadians and 58 per cent of Americans. Support for a trilateral free trade agreement reaches 88% in Canada and 56 per cent in the United States.
- Americans do not see Canada as an economic threat. Just eight per cent of Americans describe Canada as a major economic challenge, the lowest of any country tested, far below China (49 per cent), Mexico (16 per cent) or the EU (11 per cent). Canadians, amid ongoing trade tensions, are more likely to see the US as an economic challenge (77 per cent).
- Looking ahead. Both publics are more uncertain than pessimistic about the long view. When asked about the relationship ten years from now, 31 per cent of Canadians and 38 per cent of Americans expect it to be positive, but large shares on both sides declined to answer, reflecting genuine uncertainty rather than settled pessimism.
Survey Partners
The U.S. surveys were conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs; the Canadian surveys by Nanos Research.
View the survey methodology:
Cross-Tabulations
Email Diya Jiang (diya.jiang@ucalgary.ca) to receive a copy of the full cross-tabulations.
Our Methodology
The New North America Initiative (NNAI) is developing a framework upon which to build a new era of cooperation within our shared continent and builds on prior efforts to align foreign policy more closely with community-level experience.
Our work deepens and expands this approach to the Canada–U.S. relationship and broader continental cooperation. It grounds the research in community-defined problems to understand cross-border relationships in their own terms, rather than applying nationally defined priorities or external assumptions about what issues should matter across borders.